The International Credit Insurance & Surety Association (ICISA) has published its 2025 Business Sentiment Report, highlighting key market trends and expectations from members across the Trade Credit Insurance (TCI) and Surety sectors.
The report shows a market that remains steady on demand, measured on risk, and pragmatic on price — even as members anticipate a tougher credit environment ahead.
Across lines of business, ICISA members expect rising insolvencies and claims over the next 12–24 months but see pricing staying broadly stable. Rather than broad rate increases, the industry is focusing on selective underwriting, structured capacity, and technology-driven efficiency — particularly through the growing use of artificial intelligence (AI).
ESG and sustainability remain key growth drivers
The report also underscores the continued importance of Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) factors. Growth opportunities are especially strong in renewable energy, green construction, energy efficiency, and social infrastructure. However, members report differing levels of data readiness and policy integration, pointing to ongoing challenges in defining and pricing “green risk.”
Trade Credit Insurance market outlook 2025
Demand for trade credit insurance remains resilient across global markets. Members expect corporate insolvencies and claim volumes to rise as the credit cycle tightens, but most foresee no significant pricing changes.
Key macroeconomic concerns include credit quality deterioration, inflation, and geopolitical instability. Business linked to financial institutions — such as banks and factoring companies — remains stable or increasing, reinforcing the sector’s central role in supporting trade finance.
Insurers are also seeing higher use of non-cancellable limits, co-insurance structures, facultative placements, and risk-sharing mechanisms to manage capacity and distribution.
Surety market trends 2025
Surety demand continues to grow steadily, supported by activity in infrastructure and energy projects. Members note an upward trend in claims expectations, linked to project delays and construction sector exposure, but pricing remains stable overall.
Brokers remain the leading distribution channel, while bank demand is stable to increasing — particularly as Basel III regulations evolve. AI adoption is accelerating, with underwriting as the first focus area. Respondents also highlight strong transition-related opportunities in renewable and infrastructure projects.
Key cross-sector themes
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Economic outlook: Both TCI and Surety markets expect continued insolvency growth and macroeconomic uncertainty, but opportunities remain across specialized and ESG-linked sectors.
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Technology & AI: The industry is investing in artificial intelligence, data analytics, and digital tools to enhance underwriting, claims, and modelling.
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ESG evolution: Sustainability continues to gain momentum as a strategic growth lens, but standardisation of ESG data and taxonomy remains a work in progress.
About the ICISA Business Sentiment Report
The ICISA Business Sentiment Survey was conducted in July–August 2025 among ICISA’s credit insurance, surety, and reinsurance members, representing the vast majority of global market capacity. The findings reflect members’ views as the industry approaches the end of 2025 and looks ahead to 2026 and beyond.
As the report concludes, ICISA members remain well-positioned to support global trade, investment, and economic resilience — even amid shifting credit conditions and evolving market dynamics.
