Now produced in collaboration between the Berne Union and ICISA, this expanded edition of the Business Confidence Index broadens its reach to capture a more comprehensive picture of the trade credit insurance market, as well as the wider export credit and political risk insurance market.
Short-term demand sentiment has strengthened heading into 2026 H1, driven by a wave of bilateral trade agreements and growing appetite for cover in higher-risk markets. Claims expectations have risen in parallel, with expanding portfolios, climbing global insolvencies, tariff pressures on key supply chains, and oil price volatility stemming from the Iran conflict presenting the primary areas of concern.
MLT demand sentiment remains steadily optimistic, with defence, energy transition, and critical minerals sustaining the core pipeline. Data centres, nuclear, and aviation are boosting demand, while private insurers are seeing growing interest from financial institutions and development finance institutions. Claims expectations are stable, though sovereign debt stress in Africa and tariff-exposed sectors warrant close monitoring.
The Business Confidence Index is a semi-annual survey originally launched by Berne Union in 2021 and has served as a forward-looking indicator of sentiment in the export credit insurance industry, focusing on market demand and claims activity. Starting with the current edition, the BCI is now produced in collaboration with ICISA and incorporates the views of ICISA trade credit insurance and CPRI members, broadening the range of perspectives on key trends and near-term outlook. Results of this index are based on a survey of members of each organisation conducted from mid-January to the end of February 2026.
